The Endgame in Bihar Politics
With strong anti-incumbency and dwindling popularity, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may be facing the toughest political battle of his career. A recent C-Voter survey shows Tejashwi Yadav far ahead of him as the people’s choice for the next chief minister. As the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections approach, the question looms large: Can Nitish pull off yet another political maneuver, or is this his final act?
Nitish Kumar: The Political Juggler
Nitish Kumar has been the ultimate survivor in Indian politics. Despite never securing a majority on his own, he has managed to remain Bihar’s chief minister for nearly 20 years, barring a few short breaks. His ability to switch between rival parties—BJP and RJD—while keeping himself at the center of power is unparalleled.
However, this time, the political landscape is changing rapidly, and the BJP may not be willing to accommodate him any longer. The saffron party is reportedly keen to install its own leader in Bihar, much like it did in Delhi and Odisha. Bihar remains the only Hindi-speaking state where the BJP has failed to form a government independently, and 2025 might be its best opportunity yet.
BJP’s Big Opportunity in Bihar
Despite its success across India, Bihar has remained a tough nut to crack for the BJP. Even in the 2020 Assembly Elections, the BJP had two-thirds more seats than Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) but still let him retain the CM’s post. There were also allegations that the BJP used Chirag Paswan to sabotage Nitish’s campaign, though no concrete evidence emerged.
Over the years, the BJP has expanded its influence dramatically:
- Won Haryana (2014) and held power ever since.
- Defeated Naveen Patnaik in Odisha (2024) after 27 years.
- Ended AAP’s dominance in Delhi in 2025.
- Made inroads in Bengal and Telangana.
- Consolidated its position in Uttar Pradesh after setbacks in the 1990s.
Yet, Bihar remains an electoral puzzle for the BJP. The Ram Mandir wave, Modi’s charisma, and Amit Shah’s electoral strategies haven’t yielded the results they expected. Now, the party faces a crucial decision—should it contest the elections alone or continue its shaky alliance with Nitish?
Caste Politics: The Biggest Challenge for BJP
One major concern for the BJP is that Nitish Kumar’s core vote bank—Kurmis, Koeris, Kushwahas, and MBCs—may not shift to them. However, BJP successfully broke caste barriers in UP, where it won over large sections of OBCs and Dalits. Could Bihar follow a similar path?
Bihar’s Reality Check: Stagnation & Discontent
Despite Nitish Kumar’s initial achievements, Bihar remains India’s poorest state:
- Per capita income: $813 (Lowest in India)
- Poverty rate: 51.9% (Highest among Indian states)
- Minimal industrial development
- Mass migration for menial jobs
Law and order have improved under Nitish, and road infrastructure is far better than the Lalu era, but his government has failed to attract industries or generate employment. Caste loyalties still matter, but rising frustration among the youth could change the game.
The 2025 Verdict: BJP’s Next Move
In 2020, the BJP-JD(U) alliance barely scraped through, winning just 0.03% more votes than Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan. Since then, Bihar’s political dynamics have shifted significantly. The BJP is keeping its options open, avoiding a clear endorsement of Nitish as its CM candidate.
The big question now: Will the BJP finally break free from Nitish’s hold and contest alone, or will it stick to its old ally, risking another political gamble?
Bihar’s 2025 elections may not just decide Nitish Kumar’s fate, but could also reshape the state’s political landscape for years to come.
Author: This news is edited by: Abhishek Verma, (Editor, CANON TIMES)
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