In a strategic bid to reassert its presence in Tamil Nadu’s Dravidian political turf, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has rekindled its alliance with the AIADMK, two years after the latter exited the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The partnership is widely viewed as BJP’s calculated move ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, banking on anti-incumbency against the DMK government.

Following a lacklustre performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the BJP contested solo, the party hopes this revived coalition — led by AIADMK’s Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) — will not only consolidate the anti-DMK vote base but also attract smaller allies like PMK and DMDK.

BJP Accommodates AIADMK’s Demands

Significantly, the BJP has replaced its popular state president K. Annamalai — a move reportedly made at EPS’s insistence. The internal power play between Annamalai and EPS, both Goundars wielding influence in different parts of the state, has now been neutralized with the appointment of Nainar Nagentharan, a Thevar from southern Tamil Nadu, as the new BJP chief.

This change signals the BJP’s readiness to compromise to sustain the alliance. The Thevar vote bank, crucial in southern districts, is expected to be a pivotal factor in the upcoming electoral contest.

AIADMK Cadre Skeptical of Alliance

While the BJP appears buoyed by the partnership, AIADMK’s grassroots workers remain unconvinced. There are apprehensions that aligning with the BJP — perceived as unfavourable among minorities — may alienate a crucial section of the electorate. Many within the AIADMK believe the tie-up could undermine the party’s standalone prospects, despite the DMK government’s perceived vulnerabilities such as alleged corruption, drug abuse, and crimes against women.

“There is no guaranteed vote transfer between the two parties,” said an AIADMK insider.

Cautious Arithmetic, Strategic Choices

The combined vote share — BJP’s 10–12%, AIADMK’s 25%, and other anti-DMK parties’ 7–8% — presents a potential 40%+ vote bloc. The BJP is betting on this arithmetic to tip the scales in its favour.

The alliance has also forced a critical decision between BJP and actor Vijay’s TVK party. The AIADMK reportedly chose the BJP to avoid a direct challenge from the emerging political star, although some observers suggest this was motivated by efforts to shield AIADMK ministers from legal cases.

A common minimum programme (CMP) is expected to be drafted to address sensitive issues like minority rights, ensuring the BJP doesn’t overshadow its partner’s core policies.

PMK Split, Rajya Sabha Advantage

Meanwhile, the PMK camp remains divided. Party founder S. Ramadoss is hesitant about an alliance with the BJP, while his son Anbumani Ramadoss, who faces legal scrutiny, is more inclined to join the NDA.

In the short term, AIADMK’s entry into the NDA fold is a boost for BJP in the Rajya Sabha, strengthening the ruling coalition’s legislative muscle.

Will Tamil Nadu Open Its Doors?

Despite its long-standing political resistance in the South, the BJP’s new alliance marks a significant attempt to break into Tamil Nadu’s fortress of Dravidian politics. Whether the voters of the state will move past their historic scepticism and offer the BJP a viable electoral space remains to be seen.