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Friday, January 31, 2025, 3:03 am

Friday, January 31, 2025, 3:03 am

India Must Brace for the Impacts of Trump’s Presidency

India Must Brace for the Impacts of Trump's Presidency
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The return of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, along with his Republican Party securing control over both houses of Congress, signals a significant shift in global geopolitics and economic policies. While Trump’s ascent is steeped in promises of reviving America’s “golden age,” his agenda is marked by contradictions and regressive stances that threaten both international stability and bilateral relationships, including those with India.

Populism and Protectionism at Home

Trump’s early actions, such as the blanket pardons for January 6 rioters and his focus on sealing borders and deporting undocumented immigrants, signal his adherence to divisive, populist rhetoric. The introduction of policies such as the Laken Riley Act, which expands deportable offenses and limits due process, risks targeting Indian nationals among the estimated 11.7 million undocumented immigrants in the US. This could sour Indo-US relations and affect public opinion in India, especially given the close ties between the two nations’ people.

India’s concerns are further compounded by Trump’s tariff threats against countries with trade imbalances, including India, which sends about 20% of its exports to the US. While India may offer concessions to prevent a trade war, Trump’s focus on unilateralism and protectionism could jeopardize broader economic relations.

Undermining Climate and Economic Progress

Trump’s rollback of Biden-era environmental policies, such as the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, reflects his regressive stance on climate change and clean energy. His push for increased fossil fuel exploration under the slogan “Drill, baby, drill” ignores the global urgency for sustainable development.

This retrograde approach threatens to derail global efforts to combat climate change, a cause championed by India on international platforms. Moreover, it could embolden China, which dominates the electric vehicle market and green technologies, further eroding US leadership in the global green economy.

Geopolitical Implications for India

Trump’s inconsistent foreign policy poses challenges for India. His decision to lift sanctions on far-right Israeli groups while allowing violence in the West Bank undermines any claims of being a peacemaker. Similarly, his ambiguity on the Ukraine war—oscillating between seeking Russian cooperation and threatening sanctions—could complicate India’s strategic neutrality and its continued imports of discounted Russian oil.

The lack of invitations to key global leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for Trump’s inauguration contrasts sharply with the camaraderie of his first term. This signals a cooling of Indo-US relations, potentially impacting key initiatives such as the Quad and collaborations in technology and defense.

Navigating the Trump Era

India must tread cautiously while navigating Trump’s disruptive policies. Key measures could include:

  • Strengthening Economic Resilience: Diversifying export markets to reduce dependence on the US and preparing for potential tariff hikes.
  • Balancing Geopolitical Alignments: Continuing strategic engagements with Russia and China while leveraging opportunities in Quad and other multilateral forums.
  • Advocating for Indian Interests: Engaging proactively with the US administration to protect the interests of Indian immigrants and businesses.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda, steeped in populism, protectionism, and isolationism, risks destabilizing the global order. While the hope remains that Trump may course-correct to secure a meaningful legacy, India must prepare for disruptive policies while exploiting opportunities to strengthen its strategic and economic position. A pragmatic, adaptive approach will be key to safeguarding India’s interests in an increasingly unpredictable global landscape.


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