🌐 A World in Economic Flux
Global commodity markets are witnessing intense volatility, sparked by the ongoing tariff wars and geopolitical uncertainties. From energy to agriculture and base metals, virtually every sector has felt the tremors. The key question on every investor’s mind is: When will market stability return?
🛢️ Crude Oil: The Epicenter of Unrest
Among the most impacted has been the crude oil market. Brent crude prices plummeted by $15 a barrel early in the month, before staging a partial recovery after the US paused retaliatory tariffs. However, with OPEC+ increasing output and the threat of slowing global demand, the outlook remains fragile.
🔍 “Oil market uncertainty hinges heavily on China’s economic activity and US-China trade dynamics.”
🏗️ Base Metals: Weighed Down by Trade Friction
Tariff-induced demand concerns have battered base metals like copper and aluminum. Even with a 90-day tariff suspension, recovery remains uncertain.
- US tariffs are as high as 145% on Chinese goods
- China’s countermeasures include export controls on critical minerals
- Market sentiment remains cautious due to this policy limbo
📉 “Without a clear US-China trade resolution, price rebounds are unlikely.”
💰 Gold: The Crisis-Era Champion
While most commodities have seen sharp declines, gold has glittered brightly, crossing $3,200 per troy ounce for the first time on April 11. Amid economic anxiety and geopolitical risks, the yellow metal has become a safe haven for global investors.
- Gold ETF inflows surged by 92 tonnes last month
- Q1 saw total ETF holdings grow by 226 tonnes
✨ “As uncertainty rises, gold’s appeal only strengthens.”
🪙 Silver: A Missed Opportunity?
In contrast, silver continues to struggle. Despite being in a four-year supply deficit, prices have dropped due to its industrial usage ties.
- Gold/Silver ratio exceeds 100, a record since 2020
- Global industrial slowdown dragging silver down
⚠️ “Silver’s weakness defies fundamentals, suggesting a potential medium-term rebound.”
☕ Cocoa and Coffee: Agricultural Casualties
The agriculture sector has not been spared. Cocoa prices hit a 5-month low amid fears of weakened demand due to tariffs.
- Ivory Coast and Ghana face a 10–21% tariff range
- Coffee prices, particularly Robusta, are tumbling
- Major exporters like Vietnam and Indonesia were slapped with heavy duties (now temporarily reduced)
🍫 “Even essential agri-commodities are caught in the tariff crossfire.”
📦 What Lies Ahead?
With no clarity beyond the 90-day tariff pause, both exporters and importers are scrambling—exporters to push volumes, and importers to build inventory. This policy haze is eroding confidence across global supply chains.
🧭 “Market players are navigating blindfolded in a maze of trade uncertainties.”
✍️ Final Word
In these turbulent times, gold shines not just as a metal, but as a symbol of stability. While the rest of the commodity world remains shaky, only clarity on trade policies and economic recovery can calm the storm.
Author: This news is edited by: Abhishek Verma, (Editor, CANON TIMES)
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